Forecasting the Rise in Global Warming W.R.T. Co2 Levels

Sales Forecasting Project
Link Between CO2 Emission and Surface Temperature
Shuchi Gupta


Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface temperature increased by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 20th century. Most of the observed temperature increases since the middle of the 20th century has been caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, which result from human activities such as the burning of fossil fuel and deforestation.

CO2 leads to an increase in the temperature of the Earth’s surface, due to a phenomenon known as the Greenhouse Effect. The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary surface is absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases, and is re-radiated in all directions. Since part of this re-radiation is back towards the surface, energy is transferred to the surface and the lower atmosphere. As a result, the temperature there is higher than it would be if direct heating by solar radiation were the only warming mechanism.

The following research is to find out whether this supposed link is true, and if so, then to what extent.

Data Source

All the resources for the time series data is taken from government run sites, which are themselves into research for many years now, to ensure the accuracy of the data.

The data set for the surface temperature is taken from the Nasa site -

The date set for the levels of CO2 emissions have been taken from Climate Change Organisation site -

Methodology used in the project is :
  * Single Moving Average
  * Double Moving Average
  * Exponential Smoothing
  * Single Regression Technique

Single Moving...