Country Risk Assesment

Risk Assessment

Client: Region: Iran

Consultants: C

Date: 04/08/2009

Introduction We have been asked by to provide a brief security risk assessment on the country of Iran with specific emphasis on factors that may affect proposed future operations in the region concentrating on political, operational, terrorism, security and travel risks. Risk Analysis Political • Electoral Demonstrations

Large scale demonstrations took place after the announcement of the election results on 12 June 2009 which resulted in numerous deaths due to clashes with local police. Further demonstrations and violence is expected at the swearing in ceremony of president Mahoud Ahmadinejad on 5 August 2009. Security forces will not hesitate to employ robust measures, including the use of batons, tear gas, water cannon and live ammunition, to disperse demonstrators, posing significant incidental risks to bystanders. Many of the most popular hotels and embassies in the capital are situated near potential rallying points in the city centre; protests may therefore hinder movement to and from these locations. • Foreign Involvement

The current regime has claimed that foreign powers are behind the demonstrations and unrest. The UK has been singled out for particularly strong criticism. The Iranian authorities expelled two British diplomats on 29 June 2009. Nine Iranian members of staff at the Embassy in Tehran were detained on 27 June. They have all since been released. In recent years, there have been several violent attacks on, and violent demonstrations outside, the British Embassy compounds in Tehran, most recently on 14 June 2009 and 30 December 2008. Further such demonstrations are possible. • Foreign Threat

There is a current threat of a US and/or Israeli military strike against Iran due to the Iran’s current nuclear weapons program. However Israel has supported US plans for verbal engagement and – if engagement fails – tough sanctions ahead of a military option. The US...