Process Design

University of Phoenix Material

A Decision of Uncertainty

This document will familiarize you with the expectations of this assignment and provide some direction on how to structure it. This material is an example only, as you must research statistical data to help make a business decision. The concepts that follow focus on a personal decision of uncertainty. Use these probability concepts to guide you in structuring your assignment. Remember to present your paper as a narrative.

Assignment: A Decision of Uncertainty

• Research statistical data within a business context that requires a decision to be made. Then, use probability on your researched data to formulate a decision.
• Write a 700- to 1,050-word paper in APA format explaining your research methods and process for limiting the uncertainty within the decision. Discuss your results in an in-depth narrative. Be sure to explain the following in your paper:

    o The method you used to apply the concepts from the example scenario to formulate your business decision of uncertainty
    o The appropriate probability concepts and your application of them to find data that limited the uncertainty of this business decision
    o Identifications of each discrete outcome from your statistical analysis, providing a statistical rationale for each
    o The trade-offs between accuracy and precision required by the use of various probability concepts and the effect on your data

Example Scenario: To Buy or Not to Buy Cruise Insurance

I decided to take a cruise this year. Due to money and work constraints, the cruise was during the month of October. Through my research and in compliance with my constraints, the most opportune time to travel on a cruise was from October 8 through October 14. However, according to the weather bureau, this particular week was the height of hurricane season.

According to the cruise line, there is no refund if a cruise is cancelled due to a hurricane. However,...