Strategic Estimate of the Caucasus Region


• Non-US/Multinational Policy Goals, include NATO expansion in size and influence). Relations with Russia. Create an independent Kurdish nation.
• US Domestic Considerations are the oil pipeline through the Southern Caucasus Region and the Black Sea for trade access.
• Ahurastan interests include having international recognition as a sovereign nation and they want 25% share of the offshore oil reserves of the Caspian Sea.
• Non-State SAPA (South Azeri People’s Army)   (Military) “traditionalist insurgents” objectives aimed against GOAZ (Government of Azerbaijan). Supported by Ahurastan.
• Non-State SAPP(South Azeri Peoples Party)   (Political) “traditionalist insurgents”
• Non-State Free Karabakh Movement (FKM) backed by Azerbaijan.
• Ahurastan engaged in talks with North Korea about procuring nuclear weapons.
• Ahurastan funds SAPA.   Armenia interests include the modernization and improvement of their economy with sustainable levels of growth.
• Azerbaijan objectives to increase its oil rights in the Caspian Sea, restore its territory and have integration into European and Euro-Atlantic structure.
• Azerbaijan is currently supported by many U.S. programs-not limited to Peace Keeping Operations, Coalition Solidarity Funds, Counter-Terrorist Fellowship Program and Humanitarian Assistance.
• Azerbaijan opposed to Ahurastan due to their support of SAPA action in their country.
• Iran’s objectives reconstitute former borders and have controlled pipeline from Caspian Sea in addition to the U.S. presence gone from Caucasus region.  
• Iran interests include abandoning nuclear programs.
• Iran lost control of Azeri Turks who formed the Republic of Ahurastan. The Southwest province seceded and formed the Republic of Luristan.
• Russia , allowing U.S./NATO support in Georgia as long as Abkhazia/South Ossetia status quo maintained due to Tatarstan independent aspirations
• Russia has blocked all Caspian Sea...