Social Security Crisis

Social Security Crisis
Tony Greener
July 23, 2012
Kai Hintze

Social Security Crisis
In James Roosevelt’s(2010) article “Social Security at 75: Crisis Is More Myth Than Fact” he claims that that because Social Security has a dedicated income stream that covers its costs and consistently generates a surplus it therefore will stay solvent and remain available for future generations. This paper will analyze the reliability, credibility, and validity of the data used in the above claim and identifies any logical fallacies in the argument. In addition to this analysis of the data a rebuttal will be given to the claim that Social Security has a promising future.
The credibility of the claim is in question because the author could be considered an interested party because he served in the Social Security Administration and is the grandson of Franklin Roosevelt and could be interested in preserving his grandfather’s legacy.   The claim is deductively valid because if the premise is true that the income stream is sufficient then the conclusion is also true that it would remain solvent and available for future generations. While the claim is valid the premise is false making the argument unsound.   In the next section the reasons for believing the argument is unsound will be given.   In the article James Roosevelt(2010) states that reserves are sufficient to cover full benefits through 2037, and the income stream would be able to pay for 78 percent of benefits after that, implying that this proves the solvency of the program. The preceding statement is an example of a rationalization fallacy. James is rationalizing that since the income stream is able to cover a portion of the benefits that this makes the program solvent, but to be solvent the program would need to be able to cover all costs and expenses.  
As stated above the argument is unsound because the premise that the income stream is sufficient is false. According to Social Security Administration in...