Social Psychology of Fin Markets

Background info+ thesis statement. Analysis will be descriptive- which means it is concerned with the patterns were real people make actual decisions.

Design of the experiment

What we expect to see
All the participants had the same skills Same knowledge age etc. Monday- expect everyone to buy, because market was up. Tuesday- expect everyone to sell, because market was down.

Findings and analysis
Up market
Buy/sell decisions
The majority of people(83%) bought either Nov 13 or Dec 13 with most trades taking place for the Dec 13 contracts in the first decisions.
In the second decision, 42% of students sold more, which meant they are underconfident; while 54% of students bought more, which means they are overconfident. Only 4% traded with more assets than it was required, which meant they were unrealistically optimistic. Moreover, 18 participants out of 26 were overconfident for two evidences: 7 students made more buys than sells, 6 participants sticked to one asset. Almost half students out of 30 were underconfident, as they made more sells than buys. However, 5 of them were overconfident, because they sticked to one asset. Out of 4 participants, 4 of them were unrealistic optimists, because they traded with more assets than it was required.
In the third decision with 27 participants and 3 outliers, 15%(4 students) were seemed satisfied as they missed 3d decision while they had profit, which also means that they were loss averse. 59% were overconfident, as they bought more, whereas only 26% were underconfident, as they sold more.

Down market
Total: 12 people. In the decision 2, 7(58%) sold more while 5(42%) bought more.
In the decision 3. Analysis: out of 12 people: 10=overconfident, out of them 3 were also underconfident. Those who were underconfident were buying more than selling and they fall into overconfident group only because they sticked to one asset. There was also one unrealistic optimist who...