New or Refurbished

New or Refurbished

Kathleen Anderson


May 28, 2012

Bonnie Merritt

      Cell phones have become a must have instead of a want item. When I was a teenager it was a luxury to have a cell phone, and they were rather large in size. Now that is the only telephone I have. I have even disconnected my home telephone as there is no need to have one. You do not need a telephone to have an Internet connection or a satellite connection any more, either. Now companies are selling cell phones that have been refurbished to the public so you can save even more money. That is where my dilemma comes in. Do I but a new phone that costs $500 or do I buy the refurbished phone for $150, saving me $350? My cell phone company is offering the Blackberry Curve 3G phone either brand new for $500 or I can purchase the refurbished on for $150.

To make sure I was making a wise decision, I researched refurbished phones. I wanted to see what other people thought about them and if they have had success with them. This was easy enough to do as my cell phone company allows users to post his or her opinion right on the company’s website. They even have a ratings system of one to five stars on each of the phones, including the refurbished phones. I took a random sample from the reviews on the website from both the new phones and the refurbished phones for the Blackberry Curve 3G.

Interpretation of Data
To interpret my data I choose to use the Bayes’ Rule. I choose this method because I thought this was the best probability model to use to determine which type of phone to buy, a new phone or a refurbished phone. The Bayes’ Rule “relates the probability of the occurrence of an event to the occurrence or non-occurrence of an associated event,” (, n.d.). The Bayes’ Rule can be used to predict the probability of the satisfaction of buying a refurbished phone compared to a new phone.

Once I decided on...