Effects of War

An Analytical Model for Conflict Dynamics Author(s): N. Gass Reviewed work(s): Source: The Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 48, No. 10 (Oct., 1997), pp. 978987 Published by: Palgrave Macmillan Journals on behalf of the Operational Research Society Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3010117 . Accessed: 24/09/2012 08:59
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of the Operational



(1997) 48, 978-987


1997 Operational Research Society Ltd All rights reserved 0160-5682/97


An analyticalmodel for conflict dynamics
N Gass Decision Matrix, Ottawa, Canada A coherent dynamic conflict model is developed from basic principles. The governing equations have a striking resemblanceto the continuity equation in fluid dynamics with an additionaltern for the response to pressureby the opponent. The salient feature of the model is a moving confrontationline which is an excellent indicator for the evolution of conflict. The developed model also permitsinvestigationof the necessaryminimuminvolvementof a third organizationto establisha statusquo between the actors.The model is demonstrated partyactorsuch as an international on the Russian-Chechenconflict and the Bosnian war. Keywords: conflict analysis; methodology; modelling...