# Decision of Uncertainty Paper

Decision of Uncertainty Paper

The use of statistical data in decision making can be very helpful. Being able to use the statistics and formulate probabilities to help in the decision making process. There are several different types of statistical processes such as using confidence intervals, calculation of probability (Bayes’ Theorem), and hypothesis testing.
Decision
I am going out of town for vacation for a month and the decision has to be made on whether to purchase a home security system or take the chance of not having any defense. The reason for this is because leaving a house empty for a month is a risk. However, purchasing a home security system is a rather expensive investment. With the fact that I am on a strict budget I have not allocated funds for such an investment.
There are many people out there that like to rob houses. When robbers are “scoping” out their house or building they look at things such as the times people are there and the neighborhood. In this case if someone wanted to break in then it would be easy for them to see that no one is at home during this month. With a house sitter it will show activity at the house so therefore, it reduces the chances of the house getting broke into.
Research
It has also been noted that robbers check things such as if anyone answers the landline or if the lights are on. Some may even find a reason to knock on the door just to see if anyone answers. It has been advised that when on vacation someone either stop by periodically or house sit for the one on vacation so the house does not look abandoned (Schroeder, 2010). It is said that 134 households out of 1000 will be burglarized, that would equate to 13 percent. The probability the homes which were burglarized did not have a home security system is 57 percent. The probability the homes which were burglarized did have a home security system installed is 14 percent(Fishman, 2003).
Bayes’ Theorem
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