Decision of Uncertainty Paper for Qnt 561 Week 3

Decision of Uncertainty Paper
Risell Tachin
Week Three
QNT 561
May 12, 2013
Esmaail M. Nikejh

                                      Decision of Uncertainty Paper
    Uncertainty are unforeseen issues that people do not know how to handle, until everything has reached to the bottom of things. In August 2006, there was a memorable date that everyone in the population of El Paso, Texas will not be able to ever forget. That specific year was a total disaster that the rain brought to its citizen in Texas, in which was double the annual average rain and had a damage of over three hundred homes and causing a one hundred million in total damages to the state.   Texas experienced days and days of rain creating a major flooding due to the sub-standards water and drain systems and outdated systems.
      This major problem pushed Texans to analyze the forecasting of the fore-coming flooding with an estimate the cost of expenses in flooding insurance. Per the study done by the National Weather Service Forecast Office Deep convention, that produced unneeded rainfall that caused major flooding, creating threat for many Texans, along with their homes and other properties, that cover part of the southwestern, south, central, and New Mexico, and as far as part of western Texas, most of all during the summer time season. Predicting this unforeseen issues/disasters are very difficult in any region, since mother nature does not provide any warnings, but been prepared and having a risk management system in place will be very helpful due to irregular rain, the sparse data and the relatively poor performance of numerical models in the prediction of heavy rain across the southwestern United States (Rogash, 2003). For this reason it cannot be assumed of predict that the 2006 flood in Texas had a relative combination of independent variable data,...