Scenario Reference Book 1, Part 3



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15 June 2019



Ahurastan has weapons of mass destruction programs that are active and concealed. These programs were inherited from Iran after its break away from that country.

  * We assess that Ahurastan is probably 5 to 7 years away from a nuclear weapon or nuclear capability.

- Ahurastan may be pursuing the acquisition of nuclear weapons. Imagery produced immediately following the breakaway of Iran’s western and northwestern provinces in 2016 indicated that former Iranian SCUD-S production facilities in Tabriz and nuclear and uranium enrichment facilities in Bonab and Mu'allim Kalayeh were destroyed by a Tehran missile strike.   It is assessed that this was an Iranian pre-emptive strike to affect Ahurastan’s ability to continue the nuclear weapons program uninterrupted

- Ahurastan's civilian nuclear infrastructure is slowly recovering and, at present, still rather rudimentary. We judge it will be at least five years before it can restore the damage caused by the Iranian strike and develop a capability to enrich plutonium/uranium for weapons. However, Ahurastan is believed to be trying to acquire fissile material by various means--including diversion from facilities in the former Soviet Union--and its procurement activities in the past several years indicate an interest in acquiring both overt and clandestine capabilities to indigenously produce plutonium or highly enriched uranium. Additionally, there has been recent intelligence that Ahurastan is attempting to open a dialogue with North Korea regarding its nuclear programs and ambitions.  

  * Ahurastan has a significant chemical warfare capability. It is likely to have stockpiled several tons of chemical agents in bulk and weaponized form, including nerve, blister, choking, and blood agents which it seized from Iran during the revolt.

  * Ahurastan has a...