The Way You Make Me Feel

“The Way You Make Me Feel”
Consumer Confidence Running/Ruining the Economy
Keith A. Fry
Technical College of the Low Country
Abstract
There are many economic indicators that economists use to interpret and forecast trends in the economy.   Indicators such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), federal unemployment rate, housing starts/permits, personal income, retail sales, and durable goods orders are all connected and useful in developing forecasts needed by businesses and consumers to make decision.   How are they connected and how do they interact with each other?   The relationships and differences between these indicators at the end of 2006 and 2007 help build a foundation for my opinion that our economy is headed for a harsh downturn.   The main rationale for my opinion is the fickle and waning confidence of the consumer.

“The Way You Make Me Feel”
Consumer Confidence Running/Ruining the Economy
The U.S. economy is very complex.   Consequently economists have developed various philosophies and tools to help them record, interpret, and ultimately forecast trends in the economy.   Some of these tools are economic indicators.   The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lets economist, entrepreneurs, the general public, and our global trading partners judge the overall health of our economy.   The GDP measures national income and output and is defined as the total market value of all final goods and services produced in the U.S. within a year.   Components that make up the GDP are consumption, investments, government spending, and net trade (exports – imports).   While the GDP may be a decent measure used to judge the overall health of our economy it doesn’t identify economic trends in the short term.
Economists use other economic indicators to uncover short term changes in income, prices, sales, durable goods ordered, unemployment rates, and the housing market.   While all of these are connected in one degree or another they also look at the...