Cacausus

STRATEGIC ESTIMATE OF THE CAUCASUS REGION
• US Domestic Considerations are the oil pipeline through the Southern Caucasus Region and the Black
Sea for trade access.
• Non-US/Multinational Policy Goals, include NATO expansion in size and influence. Relations with
Russia. Creation of an independent Kurdish nation.
• Iran’s objectives to reconstitute former borders, control the oil pipeline from Caspian Sea and U.S.
presence gone from Caucasus region.   Iran interests include abandoning nuclear programs.
• Iran lost control of Azeri Turks who formed the Republic of Ahurastan. The Southwest province seceded
and formed the Republic of Luristan.
• Ahurastan interests to have international recognition as a sovereign nation and 25% share of oil reserves
from the Caspian Sea. Ahurastan engaged in talks with North Korea about procuring nuclear weapons.
• South Azeri Peoples Party a non-state political movement challenging the government of Azerbaijan.
South Azeri People’s Army a non-state military (insurgency) movement supported by Ahurastan.
• Free Karabakh Movement (FKM) a non-state actor backed by Azerbaijan.
• Azerbaijan objectives to increase oil rights in the Caspian Sea, restore its territory and have integration
into European and Euro-Atlantic structure.   Opposed to Ahurastan due to their support of SAPA.
• Azerbaijan currently supported by many U.S. programs (Peace Keeping Operations, Coalition Solidarity
Funds, Counter-Terrorist Fellowship Program and Humanitarian Assistance.)
• Russia, allowing U.S./NATO support in Georgia as long as Abkhazia/South Ossetia status quo
maintained due to Tatarstan aspirations of independence.
• Russia objectives include modernizing military, maintain control of Chechnya, and high tech sectors.  
Russia has blocked all Caspian Sea traffic other than Russia and Kazakhstan-flagged vessels.
• Armenia interests in modernization and improvement of their economy for sustainable levels of...