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Center for Strategic and International Studies Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
1800 K Street, N.W. • Suite 400 • Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1 (202) 775-3270 • Fax: 1 (202) 457-8746 Web: http://www.csis.org/burke

Zarqawi’s Death: Temporary “Victory” or Lasting Impact

Anthony H. Cordesman
Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
acordesman@aol.com

Working Draft, Revised: June 8, 2006

Cordesman: Zarqawi’s Death

6/8/06

Page 2

Table of Contents
MUCH DEPENDS ON IRAQI GOVERNMENT FOLLOW-UP .............................................................................. 2 THE IMPACT ON THE INSURGENCY ............................................................................................................. 3 Damage to Al Qa’ida ............................................................................................................................ 4 The Other Elements of the Insurgency .................................................................................................. 4 The Nature and Role Neo-Salafi and Islamist Extremist Groups.......................................................... 6 Guessing at Their Strength ................................................................................................................... 7 Key Islamist Extremist Groups ............................................................................................................. 9 Other Estimates................................................................................................................................... 11 NGO Estimates of the Full Range of Movements................................................................................ 12

There is no doubt that the Iraqi government and US forces in Iraq have scored a major political and propaganda victory by killing Abu Musab al Zarqawi. What is less clear that this victory will have a major impact over time. Its lasting importance depends on two things. The overall...